Is your career future-proof against the rise of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)? With the fast-growing rise in Artificial Intelligence, this has been a broadly asked question by people in all types of industries. At Tilburg.ai, we are also heavily engaged in this discussion. Recently, the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) report raises a crucial question: How will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) reshape our job market in the next 5 to 20 years? When will AI become smarter than humans? Some experts believe that AI could surpass human intelligence as early as 2029 and as late as 2044, an event commonly referred to as ‘Technological Singularity‘. On Tilburg.ai, we delve deeper into this topic by researching the fascinating subject of the “Frontier of Automation” and how it’s changing industries like education and the way we work in the future.
What is AGI?
Let’s first start with a definition of what exactly AGI is. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a type of AI that is as versatile as human intelligence. Unlike narrow AI, which excels in one specific task, AGI possesses the ability to understand, learn, and perform any intellectual task a human being can perform. For example, think of standard AI as a chess-playing program, which is only good at chess. It can’t learn or play another game like poker or write a poem. AGI, in contrast, is like a versatile genius who can master chess, learn to play other games as chess, solve math problems, and adapt to various tasks, much like a human does. This kind of AI would be capable of reasoning, problem-solving, and decision-making across diverse domains without being limited to a single specialized task. There is a lot of uncertainty about when AGI will be realized but some experts say it might be faster than you think.
Defining Task Complexity and the Frontier of Automation
In the report of the IMF, the concept of the ‘Frontier of Automation’ is introduced. The most easy-to-understand definition of this concept is that the frontier of automation is the total task complexity that machines are capable of. Task complexity is broken down into mechanical skills, such as driving a car, as well as cognitive tasks that are required to carry out a task, such as planning, reasoning, and problem-solving. For example, making a cup of tea is a low-complexity task. It involves a few straightforward steps and that’s it. On the other hand, developing a new software application is a high-complexity task. It requires not just coding, but also understanding user needs, designing a user-friendly interface, testing for bugs, and continuously updating the software based on feedback. So in other words, the ‘Frontier of Automation’ refers to the highest level of task complexity that current technology can handle, ranging from basic activities like making tea to complex processes like creating software. In today’s world, humans’ task complexity capacity is still far greater than machines’.
The Two Scenarios for the Future of Automation
The First Scenario
The IMF report delves deeper into the concept of task complexity, offering two insightful perspectives that could shape our understanding of the future job market in the age of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The first perspective suggests that the human capacity for managing increasingly complex tasks is limitless. This view aligns with our historical progress: as automation advances, humans move towards tasks of higher complexity, leaving simpler tasks to machines. This trend implies a continually expanding Frontier of Automation, with humans adapting to more sophisticated roles as AI takes over the routine aspects.
The Second Scenario
In contrast, the second view suggests that humans have a more limited ability to think and understand complex things. It argues that there is a natural/biological ceiling to the complexity of tasks that the human brain can effectively handle. Human brains share information with others quite slowly due to the limitations of our senses and language. In contrast, AI systems are rapidly improving and can exchange information much faster than we can. Machines do not have senses or emotions. This second perspective is essentially saying that the maximum task complexity we as humans can handle will at some point be reached the more our technology improves. In fact, this maximum would only be reached by our society’s Albert Einsteins and Stephen Hawkings, leaving most other humans on a more median level of task complexity.
If this second perspective holds, the implications for the future of automation are profound. As AI systems rapidly evolve and are capable of processing and exchanging information much faster than humans, they might soon reach or even surpass these upper limits of human task complexity. This specific point in time where technology would surpass human intelligence is called ‘Technological Singularity’. This scenario suggests a huge shift in the job market, where AI could potentially outperform humans in a broader range of intellectual and complex tasks, fundamentally reshaping the nature of work and employment. In contrast to the first scenario, this could mean that AI will be the one performing the sophisticated roles instead of us humans.
Implications for Job Market Disruption
The IMF report further introduces 3 scenarios, one scenario projecting a ‘business as usual’ where automation will not replace humans, one projecting a 20-year horizon for automation to replace human job skills, and the other a more aggressive 5-year outlook. Industries such as law, medicine, and construction face regulatory barriers, while sectors like writing and customer service are identified as particularly vulnerable to automation. Despite the impending automation wave, certain job categories may continue to exist due to human preference, including roles in governance, religious positions, tourism, performing arts, and healthcare. The human element is expected to retain value in these areas. If you are more interested in these timelines and implications on economics and the job market we advise you to read the full IMF report.
Takeaways for Students and Education
There is no denying that if AGI arrives it will have a massive impact on everything, so also in areas such as education. But which takeaways do you as a student or educator take from this research? How can you already respond to these advancements? Schools might have to rethink their teaching system to a system that teaches how to think creatively, solve problems, and adapt to new things since these are skills AGI can’t easily copy. For instance, rather than writing an essay on a specific topic, students could be given an essay written by ChatGPT and asked to improve it. For students, being curious and always ready to learn new things will be key, especially as jobs change with AGI’s growth. Learning topics that are less vulnerable to the Frontier of Automation is something students might have to think about. It also might be a good idea to focus on areas where humans are still ahead, like being creative and understanding emotions. Plus, knowing about AI and how to work with it will be a very important skill.
So…When Will AI Become Smarter Than Humans?
The future of AI, AGI, and automation is really interesting, and it’s important to keep a close eye on these changes. Regarding our initial question of when AI will become smarter than humans, it’s challenging to pinpoint an exact time. However, the general feeling among experts is it could be earlier than we might expect. At Tilburg.ai, we’re focused on following all of the advancements around AI and on understanding how these AI developments can improve our work, studies, and everyday life. We are also interested in the opinion of you! Where do you think the future of AI and automation is going? Are you concerned about the impact of AI and automation on your job or future career? Please let us know in the comments!
